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来源Further Chile earthquakes \'possible\', say scientists
译者dengfuzhang

30 July 2010 Last updated at 17:39 GMT

Further Chile earthquakes ‘possible’, say scientists

               科学家称智利可能再次地震
By Katia Moskvitch Science reporter, BBC News 
 

Chile lies in an earthquake hotspot in the Pacific known as the “ring of fire”

智利位于太平洋一个被称作火圈（ring of fire）的地震热区

Chilean authorities are working with seismologists in order to prepare for a possible earthquake that could strike the country “any day”. A group of researchers studied the effects of the massive earthquake that jolted the nation in February, killing almost 500 people. They found that the quake raised the land by as much as 2.5m near the coast and shifted the coastline out to sea. The findings appeared in the journal Science.

      智利政府正与地震学家合作为下一次随时可能发生的地震作准备。一组研究人员对今年二月分摇晃智利的大地震（近500人死亡）的影响进行了研究。他们发现这次地震使沿海地区上升了2.5米，并使海岸线外移。研究成果发表在科学杂志上（journal Science）。

An international team of scientists, led by University of Chile geologist Marcelo Farias, measured land-level changes at 24 sites along the county’s coast and in nine estuarine valleys.  They said the 8.8-magnitude earthquake was “the fifth largest event in modern seismology”. Co-author Daniel Melnick, a geologist from Potsdam University, Germany, said seismologists had warned the Chilean authorities about a possible disaster could happen at any given moment – but the state did not act. “Scientists met with authorities in Talcahuano several months before the earthquake,” he told BBC News. “And they warned them that there was a possibility of an earthquake and of a big tsunami.

      一支国际研究队（由智利大学地质学家Marcelo Farias领导）测量了智力沿海地区24个点和9个河口点陆地面高度的变化。他们说这次8.8级的地震是现代地震学上的第五大地震。合著者Daniel Melnick （德国波茨坦大学地质学家）称地震学家已经警告智力政府随时可能发生灾难性的地震—但智利没有行动。他向BBC新闻透露，“地震几个月前，科学家与政府官员在塔尔卡瓦诺会面，警告他们智利可能发生地震并有一次大海啸。”
 

Models of the tsunami triggered by the earthquake show waves of up to one metre travelling across the Pacific Ocean

由地震引发的海啸模型显示高达一米的海浪正穿越太平洋

“But the authorities didn’t really take the scientists seriously,” said Dr Melnick. The researcher explained that there was often a problem of communication between the scientific community and the local government. “The authorities believe that if you forecast an earthquake, everybody would start to panic and this would affect the property value,” he said. But a Santiago resident, Enrico, who was just outside the capital during the February disaster thinks people must know an earthquake might strike and be prepared. “Everyone should know what to do if the ground starts to shake,” he told BBC News. “I was lucky that I was in the countryside when the earthquake happened, but I know that in the city, where lots of people were crammed together in big buildings, there was panic. Nobody knew how to behave.”

 
       “但政府并没有对科学家予以重视。” 他解释说科学家和当地政府常常会有沟通上的问题。 “政府认为如果你预报地震，每个人就会开始惊慌，这也会影响资产价值。” 但圣地亚哥的居民Enrico（在二月的那次地震中，他正好在首都之外）认为人们必须知道地震可能来临并做好准备。他告诉BBC新闻说，“当地面开始晃动时，每个人都应该知道怎么做。”“很幸运，地震时我在乡下，但城里很多人挤在高楼大厦里肯定会惊慌，没人知道该怎么做。”

Exact forecast

精确的预测

Dr Melnick said that the latest study showed that the predictions were correct, and called February’s disaster a “wake-up call” for the local authorities. The team measured the coastal level changes right after the earthquake to calculate the size of the rupture and then determined how much “slip” was released during the shaking. Slip is the displacement that results when the tectonic oceanic plate jumps back like a spring during an earthquake after years of compressing the continental plate.

      Melnick博士说最近的研究表明当时的预测是准确的，并称二月的那次灾难对当地政府来说是一次警钟。地震发生不久后这支研究队就测量了海滨高度的变化以计算去地壳撕裂的程度，并计算去这次地震滑动了多少。所谓的滑动是指挤压大陆板块多年的海洋构造板块在地震中像弹簧一样向后跳跃所产生的位移。 
 

Almost 500 people died during the last earthquake in Chile

将近500人在智利最近的地震中死亡

They found an average slip of 10m – very similar to the forecasted data of 11.9m. Dr Melnick explained that to predict an earthquake’s magnitude, seismologists multiply plate convergence rate by the number of years since the last great event. “There was an earthquake in south-central Chile in 1835 and it was well documented by FitzRoy and Darwin, [with the data of] land level changes and a tsunami that followed.  “So that means that if we know that a region has not experienced an earthquake in 175 years, then we can say that there is about 11m of slip ready to be released. This way you can estimate the magnitude. And that’s very important to know to prepare for it,” said Dr Melnick.

      他们发现平均滑动为10米—非常接近预测数据11.9米。Melnick博士解释说，地震学家用板块的收缩率乘以距离最近一次大地震的年数来预测地震的震级。 “在1835年智利的南部中部有一次地震，FitzRoy和Darwin详细的记录了这次地震并附有陆平面高度变化数据和随后的一次海啸。” 他说，“所以这就意味着如果我们知道这一地区在过去175年中没有地震，那么我们可以预测将会有大约11米的位移。这样的话我们也可以估算出地震的震级了。 所以知道怎么样做好应对地震的准备非常重要。”

Getting ready

准备好

He said that using the same method, scientists determined another area that was “ready” for a potentially devastating shaking – northern Chile, close to the border with Peru. “The region hasn’t ruptured since 1877. We can estimate that it is ready for another magnitude 8 or 8.5 earthquake any day – it could happen tomorrow or it could happen in the years to come,” he said.  ONEMI, the Chilean National Emergency Office, has been in close contact with the seismologists, trying to prepare for a future earthquake that could strike anytime.  A spokeswoman told BBC News that the agency was working with the local authorities, explaining what should be done if the ground started to shake. “Earthquakes are our reality. To get the population ready, we have regular risk exercises when people must evacuate the building in a case of an earthquake.  “We educate them, explaining that as soon as they know that the quake is big enough to generate a tsunami, they must go to highlands.”

      他说运用这种方法，科学家们预测智利的另一地区将随时可能发生破坏性地震—北部智利，靠近秘鲁的交界处。 “这一地区自1877年以来都没有断裂过。我们估计此地随时都可能发生8级或8.5级的大地震—可能发生在明天，也可能是未来的几年。”  ONEMI (the Chilean National Emergency Office，智利国家紧急署)已经和地震学家取得了紧密联系，力争为这次随时可能发生的地震作好准备。 一名女发言人向BBC新闻透露现该机构正与当地政府合作，向他们解释当地面开始晃动时应该做什么。 “地震是你们面临的现实情况。为了让大家做好准备，我们在做一些当地震发生时疏散建筑物里人员的演习。”“我们训练他们，向他们讲解如果地震大到可以引发海啸时他们必须到高地上去。”
 

Dr Melnick said it was important that the authorities were finally starting to take science more seriously. “Local inhabitants know that there could be an earthquake,” he said. “It is very important that the authorities listen and take precautions.”

      Melnick博士称现在政府终于开始重视科学非常重要。他说，“当地居民知道可以发生地震。”“政府听取意见并采取了预防措施非常重要。”

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